Confidence isn’t just about what you think — it’s about when you think it.

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Here’s a TL;DR in bullet points:

• New research from University College London and University of Copenhagen studied 1,400+ people on confidence after making decisions.

• Not all self-doubt is the same — it comes from different mental processes.

Two Types of Underconfidence

• Anxiety-driven doubt

  • More reflection → lower confidence

  • Extra thinking fuels negative rumination

  • Best strategy: Trust your first instinct and avoid over-processing.

• Bias-driven (gender gap) doubt

  • Women report lower initial confidence than men (even with equal ability).

  • More reflection → confidence increases

  • Best strategy: Take time to review evidence and reflect.

Key Insight

• The same advice (“sleep on it” vs. “trust your gut”) can help one person and hurt another.

• Confidence depends not just on what you think — but when you think it.

Practical Takeaways

• If you’re prone to anxiety:

  • Capture your first reaction after a decision.

  • Set limits on review time (5–10 minutes).

  • Avoid replaying events repeatedly.

• If your confidence starts low:

  • Don’t trust the first negative impression.

  • Reflect on facts: What went well? What feedback did you get?

Big Theme

• Separate performance from your interpretation of it.

• Instead of “Was I terrible?” ask:
  → “What evidence am I basing that on?”

Bottom line:
Confidence isn’t fixed — it shifts based on how (and how long) you process your decisions.