Tuesday, 3 February 2026
DS
dopamine isn’t a reward molecule—it’s a prediction-error signal, encoding moment-to-moment updates in expectation that drive learning and motivation. More clinically relevant: dopamine and serotonin often operate in opponent fashion. Dopamine tracks positive predictions; serotonin tracks negative predictions and active inhibition. Their balance shapes behavior, mood, and learning capacity.
FS
The game of life is a game of boomerangs. Our thoughts, deeds and words return to us sooner or later with astounding accuracy."
~ Florence Scovel Shinn
FB
Here is the world: beautiful and terrible things will happen.
Don't be afraid.
Frederick Buechner
ODDS OF TURNING 100
A
EVEN BIGGER QUESTION 😄
Turning 100 is rare—but not that rare anymore.
At birth (modern developed-country averages)
Women: about 1–2% (≈ 1 in 100)
Men: about 0.3–0.5% (≈ 1 in 200–300)
So overall, roughly 1 in 150 people born today will reach 100, and most of them will be women.
If you’ve already survived to…
Your odds rise a lot with age:
Age 65: ~2–5% chance
Age 80: ~5–10%
Age 90: roughly 10–20% (this is the big jump—making it to 90 is the hard part)
What strongly increases your chances
Long-lived parents or grandparents 🧬
Not smoking (this is huge)
Avoiding major heart disease
Staying socially connected (seriously!)
Decent luck—centenarians all admit this part 😅
Reality check
Reaching 100 isn’t just about adding years—it’s about not dying from the big killers early (heart disease, stroke, smoking-related illness). If you dodge those, the odds quietly stack in your favor.
If you want, tell me:
your age
sex
country
…and I’ll give you a more personal “centenarian probability” estimate 🔮
ODDS OF TURNING 90
A
BIG QUESTION 😄
Short answer: it depends a lot on who you are and where you live, but here are solid ballpark odds.
At birth (U.S.-style averages)
Women: roughly 1 in 4 (≈25%) will make it to 90
Men: roughly 1 in 6 (≈15–18%) will make it to 90
If you’ve already made it to…
Your odds jump a lot the longer you survive:
Age 50: chances are much higher than at birth
Age 65: about 30–40% of women and 20–30% of men reach 90
Age 80: you’ve got a very real shot (many estimates land around 40–50%)
What shifts the odds up or down
Sex (women live longer on average)
Genetics (long-lived parents = bonus points)
Smoking history (huge factor)
Heart health, exercise, and luck 🍀
Country & healthcare access
If you want, tell me your age, sex, and country, and I’ll give you a much more personalized “90-year-old likelihood” breakdown 👀