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Numerical Breakdown of "Toughness"
To differentiate these without using locations, analysts use the following margin of victory (MoV) scale:
Razor-Thin (<1% MoV): The highest priority for both parties. A shift of just a few hundred votes flips the result.
Marginal / Tough (<5% MoV): Often referred to as "Swing Seats." These are the primary targets for candidate swaps and "Strongman" deployments.
Fairly Safe (6% – 15% MoV): Usually only at risk during a massive "Wave" election where the state-wide swing exceeds 10%.
Safe (>15% MoV): Seats considered "locked," where the only real risk is internal sabotage or candidate disqualification.
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