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Here’s a neat, bullet-style “gist” version of Spencer Greenberg’s article on what a single data point can teach you:
What a Single Data Point Can Teach You – 7 Key Ways
1. Alerting You to a New Possibility
Shows a phenomenon exists that you hadn’t considered.
Example: Roentgen observing green light → discovery of X-rays.
Example: Seeing a black swan disproves the “all swans are white” belief.
2. Inspiring a Hypothesis
One observation can spark a new idea or concept.
Example: Seeing a friend use a novel negotiation tactic gives you a testable strategy.
3. Illustrating a Causal Mechanism
Helps you understand how something works, not just that it works.
Example: Taking apart one mechanical clock helps you fix others later.
4. Unlocking Other Data Points
A single observation can make previously ignored or confusing data make sense.
Example: Observing a partner cheating clarifies patterns in prior behavior.
5. Providing Bayesian Evidence
A surprising data point can strongly support one hypothesis over another.
Example: Rash disappears two hours after a cream application → likely causal effect.
6. Estimating a Mean in Low-Variance Situations
When variability is minimal, one observation approximates the average.
Example: Walking time to the store is predictable from one trip if conditions are stable.
7. Showing What’s Not Extremely Unlikely
A single example usually isn’t a huge outlier for the population it comes from.
Example: A randomly seen wild spider monkey is likely between the 1st–99th percentile in size.
Key Caveat
Most of the time, one data point tells you almost nothing.
We humans often overgeneralize from a single experience.
But in special contexts — novelty, causal insight, low variance, or surprising evidence — one data point can be highly informative.
💡 One-line takeaway:
“One data point usually isn’t enough — but sometimes, it can reveal new possibilities, spark hypotheses, clarify causal mechanisms, unlock other evidence, provide Bayesian support, estimate the average, or rule out extremes.”
If you want, I can also compress this into a 1-line “memory code” like your RXFA–TOLB / TYBD system for mental shortcuts. It would be super easy to recall. Do you want me to do that?
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