That analogy is actually a good way to picture it:
- Climate change is like an incoming tide — slow, steady, and long-term. It gradually raises the baseline: average temperatures, sea levels, and overall heat in the climate system.
- El Niño is like a giant wave on top of that tide — a temporary spike that rides on the already higher baseline and pushes things to extremes.
So when an El Niño happens today, it starts from a warmer world than it did decades ago. That means:
- hotter heatwaves
- stronger droughts in some regions
- heavier rains in others
- more global temperature records
Without climate change, El Niño still causes bumps.
With climate change, those bumps sit on a higher platform, so they hit harder.
Another way to visualize it:
- Climate change = raising the floor
- El Niño = jumping on that higher floor
Same jump, bigger impact.
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