TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER FALLACY
The fallacy gets its name from imagining a cowboy shooting at a barn. Over time, the side of the barn becomes riddled with holes. In some places there are lots of them, in others there are few. If the cowboy later paints a bull’s-eye over a spot where his bullet holes clustered together, it looks like he is pretty good with a gun. By painting a bull’s-eye over a cluster of bullet holes, the cowboy places artificial order over natural random chance. If you have a human brain, you do this all of the time. Picking out clusters of coincidence is a predictable malfunction of normal human logic
EG LINCOLN KENNEDY ASSN COINCIDENCES
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CONDITIONING
Conditioning refers to the process by which behaviors, thoughts, or responses are shaped and learned through interactions with the environment, experiences, or repeated patterns. It plays a central role in psychology and is often categorized into two main types:
1. Classical Conditioning
- Definition: A learning process in which an organism associates two stimuli, resulting in a learned response.
- How it Works: A previously neutral stimulus becomes associated with an unconditioned stimulus, triggering a conditioned response.
- Example: Pavlov’s dogs. When a bell (neutral stimulus) was paired repeatedly with food (unconditioned stimulus), the dogs learned to salivate (conditioned response) at the sound of the bell alone.
2. Operant Conditioning
- Definition: A learning process where behavior is shaped by its consequences, such as rewards or punishments.
- How it Works:
- Positive Reinforcement: Adding a desirable outcome to increase behavior (e.g., giving a child candy for cleaning their room).
- Negative Reinforcement: Removing an unpleasant stimulus to increase behavior (e.g., turning off a loud alarm by getting out of bed).
- Punishment: Applying consequences to reduce behavior (e.g., a fine for speeding).
- Example: A student studies hard to receive praise from a teacher (positive reinforcement).
3. Social or Observational Conditioning
- Definition: Learning by observing and imitating others' behavior.
- How it Works: Through modeling, individuals pick up on patterns, habits, and responses they see in others.
- Example: A child learning manners by watching their parents.
Broader Perspectives
In a spiritual or philosophical context, conditioning often refers to the ingrained patterns of thought and behavior formed by cultural, social, and personal experiences. This conditioning can influence how people perceive and respond to life, often unconsciously.
- Cultural Conditioning: Behaviors and beliefs shaped by societal norms and traditions.
- Emotional Conditioning: Responses to certain stimuli based on past emotional experiences.
Conditioning explains much about how humans and animals adapt to their environments, but it also highlights how deeply ingrained patterns can shape and sometimes limit behavior.
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